Incremental buying keeps bulk market ticking over In its ‘World Production Outlook: First Estimates 2025’, published in late November, the Organisation of Vine & Wine (OIV) estimated global wine production at between 228 and 235 million hectolitres. The mid-range projection – 232 million hectolitres – would, the OIV stated, represent a 3% recovery from the provisional 2024 figure of 225.8 million. We suspect the OIV’s midrange projection could be an overestimate, as it includes a questionable expectation of the US harvest: rather than larger as the OIV states, California’s 2025 crop is widely assumed to have come in even smaller than 2024’s twenty-year low. Widespread non-harvesting of uncontracted grapes meant a disparity between crop potential and the tonnages that in fact crossed the scales. The OIV’s estimate of Italy’s harvest could also be downwardly revised, after reports that some deleterious effects from adverse condit

Some markets active amid persistent global weakness Three bulk wine markets – France, Italy and Chile – entered November having experienced good activity levels through October. “Activity” is the key word: sample requests and price discussions have constituted most of the activity in southern France; actual transactions have been limited. Likewise, a steady stream of enquiries into Chile’s remaining 2025-vintage supplies, and its prospects for 2026, have outnumbered transactions. But there have been good transaction levels in Italy, as it has become clear all of Europe’s three major harvests came in short of their five-year averages. This month’s Global Market Report provides information on what Italian wines transactions have been occurring, which 2025 wines are being released early to bridge a supply gap, and what 2025-vintage stocks Chile still possesses. The latest prices on all these items, as well as France’s new 2025-vintage prici

This month’s Global Report marks the 100th issue under my editorship. I wrote the introduction to my first issue, July 2016, just days after the Brexit referendum in my native country. Four months later, Donald Trump was elected president of the US for the first time. “Trump and Brexit: we live in interesting times,” I wrote in November 2016, and of course the interesting times were just getting started. Tariff wars; a global pandemic; war in the Ukraine. Wine consumption surged in some markets during COVID-19, then fell back, in some instances to below pre-pandemic levels. The Chinese demand bubble deflated, exposing a declining sales trend in developed markets that had been ongoing since the 2007-08 global financial crisis, so that the International Organisation of Vine & Wine estimated that worldwide wine consumption in 2023 was at 1996 levels. Hectarage consequently had to contract, and has done so, most notably in France, California, Chile and Australia. The

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The International Organisation of Vine & Wine (OIV) has released its preliminary estimates of global wine production in 2023: the mid-range estimate is 241.1 million hectolitres, 7% down versus the below-average volume of 2022 and, it says, the lowest output since 1961. We suspect this mid-range figure may be a little on the high side, as the OIV used for their Italy figure an early-September estimate issued before the lightness of tonnages in central and southern parts of the country became clear.  While the “smallest output in 60 years” statement makes for good media headlines, the OIV concedes that it has occurred in a context “where global consumption is declining and stocks are high in many regions of the world”, adding hopefully, “the expected low production could bring equilibrium to the world market”.  We have seen that Italy’s short crop has stimulated some bulk-wine buying activity there and in neighbouring Spain, with s

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Afternoon Brief, September 18th

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