A Time for Reflection & Collaboration By Steve Fredricks  As the 2024 harvest concludes, the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, and the year draws to a close, it's a natural time for reflection and giving thanks. While it's easy to get caught up in the current negativity caused by slow consumer sales and oversupply, let's appreciate a few of the positives—both in the past year and the one ahead.  We can be thankful the 2024 harvest was earlier, smoother, and lighter than in 2023. And, despite the multiple heat events throughout California, winemakers' feedback has been positive to excellent regarding the vintage's quality thus far. This presents continued opportunities for the industry, as wine quality for consumers is better than ever with diverse styles.  We can also be thankful that beyond the vines and wines, there is a growing awareness and an increasing sense of collaboration to address and turn the tide of our global consumer sales ch

Late heat starting to influence vineyards and the market Devoid of weather extremes, September was perfect for vineyard conditions across California and harvesting proceeded smoothly through the month. However, October ushered in an unseasonable heatwave, with triple-digit temperatures registered in some areas and a number of temperature records broken. The resulting speed-up in sugar accumulation has intensified picking and, in turn, necessitated quicker decisions in the vineyards and on the grape market: To pick or not pick, to custom crush or not custom crush, to buy extra grapes or not buy extra, etc. Prior to the heat’s arrival, grape quality across the state appeared very good and – as of October 9th – no widespread deleterious effects of heat on quality had been reported. By that date, something like 60-65% of the harvest was complete in the North Coast. Until the heat, the North Coast’s crop – assisted by some sizing during cooler spells back in A

Crop appears lighter in some areas; grape market activity still limited Following an easing of heat levels in mid-August, 100-105°F temperatures returned to some areas of California toward the end of the month and into the first week of September. Reports of the hottest summer on record – for the western US as well as the Northern Hemisphere as a whole – obscure a more nuanced picture at the local level: While heat has been consistently intense in California’s southern Interior, Coastal areas have tended to avoid the worst extremes and, in some cases, even experienced cooler-than-average August temperatures. It has, in general, been a good growing year. The picking timetable is well in advance of last year – when it was delayed by unusually mild conditions – and close to normal, with harvesting of the early whites getting started in the Interior by mid-July and in the Coast at the beginning of August. The return of higher temperatures has likely quick

50 Years of Service by Steve Fredricks  This year marks the 50th anniversary of Turrentine Brokerage—the golden anniversary, if you will. Dan Turrentine founded the company in 1973 after a long career in the wine industry with the Wine Institute and California Wine Advisory Board. He started the business to maintain the long-term personal relationships he had fostered since the 1940s. Since then, we have grown to 18 employees amassing a dizzying number of phone calls, miles driven (not possible to do at the same time in the early days!), samples shipped, faxes, pages (remember pagers?) transmitted, emails, and texts sent amounting to a remarkable number of gallons, tons, and cases brokered. Most important, we have logged countless stories of incredible experiences and successful deals completed.  In short, our history parallels the recent history of California wine. It’s been quite a ride.  Celebrating 50 years provides a great opportunity to reflect upon our

Afternoon Brief, October 18th

US Department of Labor Finds California Grape Grower Illegally Gave Wage, Hour Preference to H-2A Visa Holders at Expense of US Workers: Investigation recovers $54K in lost wages for 14 affected workers in Sonoma County...

by Steve Fredricks We are now well past a relatively uneventful and smaller harvest, particularly in the North Coast, mask mandates have been lifted in most areas, and on-premise sales continue to rebound. Overall, the industry seems to be a taking a collective deep breath to assess the current market dynamics, but remains unable to relax totally or look too far ahead. The market disruptors of Covid-based channel shifting on the consumer side and short crops from drought and fires on the supply side have been exacerbated by geo-political, supply chain, and inflationary issues. The net effect is that supply excesses are down and more in balance to demand. In many ways it feels like the market is more ‘normal’ than it has been for quite some time. At the same time, one must ask: Is this really a return to normalcy, or are we adapting to new normals? This issue will focus on what we are currently seeing in the bulk wine and grape markets, and will offer an early look at the So

by Steve Fredricks Last month I was impatiently waiting for my favorite Philly Cheesesteak as I overheard another sandwich lover describing the success of his investment in Dogecoin to his friend. He was touting Dogecoin as a “sure investment” based on his study of the price trend, and was looking forward to spending his yet unrealized gains. I couldn’t help but be reminded of reading about confirmation bias while studying psychology and behavioral economics. Confirmation bias is the tendency to place greater weight on the variables which support the future that most benefits us and to discount information that does not. Mr. Philly Cheesesteak failed to acknowledge the speculative nature of Dogecoin. I hope his friend didn’t choose to invest; shortly after overhearing that conversation, Dogecoin dropped 40 percent. Markets, in reality, are complex beasts with many evolving variables and more determining factors than just today’s price and direction. Histor