Wine Club Retention    Predict Churn Risk and Act Earlier Churn rarely starts with a cancellation. It starts with drift.   What drift looks like • Stops opening emails • Engages less with releases • Buys less between shipments • Feels less connected while still “active”   That is why retention is not one save campaign. It is a system. The fastest way to improve retention is to catch risk earlier, then focus your time on the members who are drifting.   3 signals that spot drift early   Recency Recent opens, clicks, site activity, add-on purchases  Do: simple check-in or personal invite Consistency A normally engaged member suddenly goes quiet  Do: ask what they want more of, adjust cadence Value High lifetime value behaviors, add-ons, referrals, events  Do: human outreach, recognition, insider access   Match outreach to the moment   VIPs who are drifting: personal outreach that feels hum