Packaging supply stable, but uneasy While June ushered in a more stable rhythm after May’s tariff-driven frenzy, underlying uncertainty continues to shape planning, procurement, and pricing across the packaging and logistics landscape. Supply remains steady across most categories, but stability doesn’t mean simplicity. US glass manufacturers, in particular, are contending with a mismatch between output and demand. Inventories have piled up amid sluggish ordering, especially from wine producers still reeling from compressed consumer spending and slowing DTC velocity. With tanks and warehouses more full than empty, some domestic furnaces are now eyeing Q3/Q4 production pauses as a measure to rebalance. After a brief reprieve in May, diesel prices rose again in June, increasing from $3.499 to $3.599 per gallon, a continued reflection of the volatile energy market. According to the latest Deloitte economic outlook, while core inflation is showing signs of moderation, ener

As we move into the summer shipping season, the overall supply chain remains relatively stable – though a few indicators are beginning to shift. Here’s what we’re seeing across the key areas impacting glass packaging and logistics. Glass supply is holding steady, with no significant disruptions reported across domestic or international sources. Availability has remained neutral for several months now, though specific bottle types and molds still see some intermittent constraints. That said, there is a growing awareness in the industry of potential pressure on furnace capacity later this year. Conversations are underway about potential closures in Q4, which could result in tighter availability in early 2026 if demand remains stable or increases. Diesel prices edged downward in May, offering slight relief for overland freight. The national average fell from $3.567 per gallon in April to $3.499 in May. This small but welcome drop comes at a time when other transportation

In recent years, US trade policy developments – including broad tariffs and anti-dumping/countervailing duties – have disrupted global supply chains and increased costs across multiple industries. The wine and spirits sector, in particular, continues to experience the ripple effects of trade tensions involving key packaging sources such as China, Mexico, and Canada, along with ongoing tariffs on aluminum and steel. On April 2, 2025, President Trump invoked emergency trade powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), imposing a 10% “baseline” IEEPA tariff on most imported products from most countries, effective April 5. Higher tariff rates on imports from 57 countries were temporarily suspended for all but China, providing a 90-day reprieve. Meanwhile, China was subjected to 125% IEEPA reciprocal tariffs plus 20% IEEPA “fentanyl” tariffs, as well as any other applicable tariffs, such as the 25% China Section 301 tariffs initia

Each month, the packaging and materials part of the market becomes increasingly challenging to predict due to the erratic implementation of tariffs and ensuing trade wars. That being said, both the threat and actual application of tariffs have cascading implications for wine and spirits sales of finished goods and all the components. The US government enforced 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, effective March 4, 2025. The administration rowed back somewhat on March 6, postponing until April 2 tariffs on all products imported from Canada and Mexico covered by the USMCA. However, a 10% duty on Canadian energy will likely remain in place. Additionally, the administration pressed ahead with 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imported into the US, effective March 12, arguing it will help level the playing field for US manufacturing. Unfortunately, this will likely have profound implications for the cost of goods of many products including – most pertinently for our ind

Looking back over a challenging 2024 and ahead to 2025 This month’s California Report looks back at the year just passed and ahead to the new one: Read on below for an in-depth review of the bulk wine and grape markets in 2024, as well as bulk inventory charts for a range of periods and an updated bulk/grape market activity barometer. A Q&A with Ciatti broker Johnny Leonardo, discussing the current market situation, will be published in the coming days, together with the first packaging bulletin of the year from our friends at Saxco. For California’s wine industry, the year 2024 was defined by a painful but necessary right-sizing as the industry evolves into one better suited to delivering to the US market something like 350 million 9-liter cases of wine per year instead of the 400 million cases of the past. Rationalization of businesses and vineyard area took greater hold – there was a marked rise in wine-related property on the real-estate market and a shortage

The wine industry continues to reflect the geo-political uncertainty of the world. While Cabernet has been testing the mettle of growers and winemakers, with a heat spike to make things even more challenging, the themes of logistical efficiency, manufacturing constraint and growing demand also continue to the forefront. Freight costs from Asia to the US have shown some relief, with a 4% decrease for the West Coast and a 3% dip for the East Coast, which could slightly reduce import expenses. Canadian rail operations remain stable for now, but potential disruptions loom as labor negotiations continue. Similarly, there is potential for a West Coast port strike. The US barely avoided a prolonged East Coast port strike commencing October 1st, 2024; the strike was suspended on October 3rd. If it had proceeded for longer, it would have created significant bottlenecks in supply chains, affecting shipments between Maine and Texas. Trade and Duty Updates In a major development, the US Interna

Welcome to the August update from our friends at Saxco, on market dynamics in beverage packaging. This update first appeared in August’s Ciatti California Report, which you can find on Substack here.  Despite the macro-economic challenges, the CrowdStrike outage, the geopolitical tensions, and the exciting Olympics, the wine packaging market has remained rather stable for the last month.  However, the US Department of Commerce (Commerce) recently made affirmative preliminary antidumping (AD) determinations regarding glass wine bottles and similar glass bottles (740ml-760ml) imported from China, Mexico, and Chile. As a result of these preliminary findings, imports of in-scope glass bottles will incur AD cash deposit requirements at rates within the ranges indicated below. As with the countervailing duty (CVD) cash deposit requirements announced in May 2024, AD cash deposits represent payments of estimated tariffs, and any final AD tariff liability will be dete

Afternoon Brief: California Winemaking Is at a Dangerous Crossroads

California's vineyards are on the verge of crisis. Vine disease is rampant, labor costs are exploding, and the climate is getting hotter, sometimes wetter, certainly weirder...

Saxco is proud to sponsor the sixth annual International International Canned Wine Competition, which will be held August 7-8th. Be sure to register before July 22nd, link is down below! https://cannedwinecompetition.com/