Afternoon Brief, August 18th

Potential Rain in Hurricane Hilary’s Wake Worrisome for Sonoma County Winegrowers: North Bay winemakers have been tracking the forecast closely, worried about what any rainfall could mean at this key time of year...

The Value of Experience by Steve Fredricks  Over the past five decades, we have experienced and recorded numerous market cycles, enabling us to guide our clients in navigating fluctuating conditions with effective strategies. With today's challenging marketplace, the value of our experience is particularly crucial.  As we mark our 50 years in business, we remain steadfast in delivering the most precise and timely market information on bulk wine and grapes supply and demand. We draw from extensive active listings, recent deals, and years of navigating the complexities and emotions of market cycles to help you make informed decisions.  While this season may continue to be a slow market, we encourage you to adopt a realistic approach and make tough decisions on supply, so you are ready to capitalize on opportunities as they arise.  In this newsletter, we provide in-depth analysis on the bulk wine and grape markets for key varieties and regions. Our coverage include

Afternoon Brief, June 13th

Vintners Warn a Wine Shortage Could Be Coming, as They Try to Adapt to Climate Change: From cold snaps in B.C. to flooding in Italy, extreme weather is damaging crops...

In many ways, the long-term visibility in the wine industry is cloudy at the moment. Retail sales trends are declining and difficult to interpret due to the upheaval of sales channels in recent years, increasing costs and unreliability of sourcing dry goods, many businesses are bracing for the potential of a recession, inflation, and all the while Covid still looms in the background. It is in times like this that a trusted broker can be one of the most valuable tools at your disposal since we have a clear picture of what is occurring in the grape and bulk wine markets. Following is a grape market and crop update by region from the brokers based upon their vineyard visits with clients, Turrentine’s historical market data, and extensive conversations with clients. - by Steve Fredricks North Coast Christian Klierby Christian Klier Buying and selling grapes throughout the North Coast has been similar to last year with the highest quality grapes contracted early. Many buyers are still

Decision-making on the sourcing of bulk wine and grapes continues to get more complex and difficult. April frosts in the Lodi/Delta, and in other regions of California to a lesser extent, added another challenging variable to the year. As of now, it appears the reduction in supply due to the frost affected Chardonnay and Pinot Noir in these regions the most. Time will provide a clearer picture of the 2022 crop size. In fact, recent crop projections are generally more positive than the initial forecasts after the frosts, but there is still uncertainty as to the extent of the damage. In the North Coast and other parts of California, the frost will likely have less of an impact. Bulk markets have slowed, returning to a more typical seasonal pace following 18 months of heightened demand, but still remain active. The typical spring slowdown is due to wineries assessing crop size and projected sales trends to inventories. It is more complicated this year for a few reasons. The first variable

by Steve Fredricks We are now well past a relatively uneventful and smaller harvest, particularly in the North Coast, mask mandates have been lifted in most areas, and on-premise sales continue to rebound. Overall, the industry seems to be a taking a collective deep breath to assess the current market dynamics, but remains unable to relax totally or look too far ahead. The market disruptors of Covid-based channel shifting on the consumer side and short crops from drought and fires on the supply side have been exacerbated by geo-political, supply chain, and inflationary issues. The net effect is that supply excesses are down and more in balance to demand. In many ways it feels like the market is more ‘normal’ than it has been for quite some time. At the same time, one must ask: Is this really a return to normalcy, or are we adapting to new normals? This issue will focus on what we are currently seeing in the bulk wine and grape markets, and will offer an early look at the So

2021 Harvest Begins in the Arroyo Seco AVA of Monterey County  

(Greenfield, CA) September 27, 2021- The Arroyo Seco Winegrowers Association is excited to announce the 2021 Harvest is underway.  The first wine grapes to leave the vineyard headed for the winery were grapes for the sparkling wine program at Wente Vineyard. “We are thrilled to begin harvest with one of my favorite  programs, our Arroyo […]

Joyce Wine Company Joins the Arroyo Seco Winegrowers Association  

(Greenfield, CA) July 26, 2021– The Arroyo Seco Winegrowers Association is thrilled to  announce the newest member of the association, Joyce Wine Company.   Winemaker and Monterey County local, Russell Joyce, is expanding Joyce Wine Company into an estate winery with the recent purchase of the historic Ventana Vineyards in the Arroyo Seco AVA. He plans […]

by Steve Fredricks Excess Markets, Long-Term As we have been reporting for some time, the current excess market cycle had already slowed the bulk wine and grape markets well before the shelter-in-place orders. This time last year, most of the larger companies were in an oversupply position causing some traditional buyers to become sellers. Over the last year and a half, wineries and growers have made difficult choices to right-size inventories, realign their cost of goods, and/or remove acres. Many of our clients started making efforts to reduce supply, increase demand through innovation, and release new brands at lower price points. These business practices were working. Most of those large companies that were sellers last year were at a more neutral market position in Q1 2020, especially at the value-end. COVID-19 Impacts Unfortunately, the challenges of excess that growers and wineries were already adapting to have altered and increased in recent weeks due, in large part, to the ste