In the Fall 2025 issue of Winescape, Dr. Chris Bitter, Senior Wine and Grape Analyst at Terrain, dives into the data behind the decline in alcohol consumption to find its root causes. In this episode of Expert Perspectives, he outlines the five major factors and what he thinks is the biggest driver.

Economic uncertainty continues to dampen consumer confidence and wine demand, with no apparent threats to an abundant grape crop. Wine sales are off to a slow start in 2025 and the glimmers of progress evident in the second half of 2024 have mostly dissipated. I had initially expected to see progress continue in 2025, particularly in the premium and luxury segments, due in part to an improvement in consumer sentiment that began after the November election. This looks overly optimistic now. Consumer sentiment has plummeted over the last several months, though the hard economic indicators have generally remained positive. Nonetheless, I expect the labor market to soften and progress on inflation to stall as we move into the back half of the year, though the outlook remains extremely uncertain. Thus, wine sales are not likely to improve anytime soon. Consequently, the grape market has continued to soften. This is despite the fact that there will be likely less excess fruit this year becau