The later-than-usual release of the Grape Crush Report had everyone doing what this industry does best: guessing. And when the number finally dropped, it landed somewhere between “not great” and “not nearly low enough to matter.” At approximately 2.6 million tons, the 2025 crush came in higher than most had hoped, and, more importantly, higher than many believe the market actually needs. The Facts: What the Crush Report Tells Us Data released by the California Department of Food and Agriculture shows that the 2025 grape crush totaled approximately 2.6 million tons. That represents a decline of just over 8% from the prior year and marks the smallest crop since the late 1990s. On the surface, that’s a meaningful shift. After several years where production consistently exceeded 3 million tons, supply is clearly beginning to respond. But the details matter. Key premium varieties such as Cabernet Sauvignon, Chardonnay, and Pinot Noir all declined, while certain