September brought an intense heatwave to much of California, with a ‘heat dome’ – a high-pressure system that creates and then encases heat below it – locking in a week of temperatures at 105-115°F. Growers had to make a call as to whether to bring picking forward to avoid the risk of bunch-weight loss, raisining and desiccation, but at potentially sub-optimal ripeness levels, or brave it out. The heat helped speed along and condense the harvest, potentially causing logjams at wineries as they struggle to cope with a lot of grapes coming in all at once – another consideration for growers when deciding whether or not to pick.
The intense daytime heat led to greater emphasis on hand-picking at night – when temperatures were sometimes still in excess of 75°F – and meant extra care had to be taken with the storing and transportation of grapes: chilling capacity has been important. Generators were also at the ready in case of blackouts/brownouts, as the day-long heat created extra energy demand through evening when solar energy supplies are more limited. An inevitable consequence of the heat and dryness has been wildfires: There has been some talk around smoke, but we have not heard of any issues as yet. Fortunately, winds have been low, keeping fires mostly containable.
The North Coast is picking perhaps 2-3 weeks ahead of a normal timetable; many growers are saying they will be finished by the end of September. Most Chardonnay is in the barn, so too Napa Valley Cabernet; Sauvignon Blanc in some instances came in better than last year, but lighter than expected. The Central Coast is also 2-3 weeks ahead, with everything coming in on the lighter side, especially Pinot Noir, including in Monterey. Some have estimated Monterey’s total yield shortfall at 20-30%, Santa Barbara 25-35%. Suggestive of a lighter Pinot Noir crop in the Central Coast, the variety in some areas is getting picked ahead of Chardonnay for still wine; in turn, Chardonnay is expected to be shorter. Picking of the Central Coast’s later-season reds – including Paso Robles Cabernet – is underway, so the area’s overall crop size will be clearer soon. This season in Paso has seen the highest number of growing degree days – through September 1st – of any year since at least 2014, further speeding up the crop there.
We estimate the timetable in Lodi and the Central Valley to be one of the earliest of the past 10-20 years, but the trend in the past 5-6 years has been for earlier harvests anyway, so in some cases picking is in line with last year. Sauvignon Blanc picking was in some instances brought forward to avoid the heatwave; Pinot Grigio output seems a little light; Pinot Noir has for the most part been harvested; picking of the late-season reds is underway. Tonnages appear average, with just as many blocks coming in with an overage as a shortfall.
Taking all this into account, we have revised our crop estimate downward from 3.7-3.9 million tons last month to 3.5-3.7 million tons now, a range that includes where last year’s crop finished – 3.61 million tons. The further this harvest progresses, the more a crop at 3.5 million tons or below looks possible, but it remains too early to call. Unlike last year, the Central Coast crop appears to be picking lighter than average, while continuing vineyard pull-outs in the southern Valley raises a question mark over total tonnage potential there versus past years.
Towards the end of September’s second week, we started receiving inquiries into 2021-vintage Coastal wines, indicating that the Coast’s short crop is getting shorter. In addition, some suppliers who had Coastal fruit available – such as Pinot Noir and Cabernet – have become less flexible on price and are willing to make wine themselves, suggesting a short 2022 Coastal wine supply and robust pricing for what is produced.
The Ciatti team stands ready to help you navigate this market – get in touch with your grape and bulk wine needs as soon as possible so we can start matching up buyers and sellers and disseminating samples. In the meantime, read on for further insight into the bulk wine and grape markets.