Harvest weather in California has been good in recent weeks, with no diseasefriendly conditions reported, nor extreme heat. That said, temperatures have still been in the 90–100°F+ region on a consistent basis, speeding up ripening so that the harvest is ahead of normal in many areas – to varying extents but, in general, by approximately a week or so. The severe state-wide drought has inevitably played a big part in the quick ripening: Water curtailment mandates are in place up and down the state’s rivers and there have been drought stress issues visible on some vines, including lack of berry sizing and desiccated foliage.
Consistent heat and longstanding drought have led to some compaction in picking readiness. For example, some vineyards in the Central Valley – where it has been particularly dry and hot – have reported picking Merlot and Cabernet already, ahead of Sauvignon Blanc. Sometimes sugar levels are ready but other parameters are not, and slowing things down is difficult without access to adequate water supplies. Harvest compaction will potentially create some short-term logistical headaches at wineries regarding crushing capacity, and might exacerbate the pre-existing problem of trucking scarcity if grapes are coming in all at once. Issues around the supply of hand labor – or rather the lack of it – persist; like the trucking, this is symptomatic of limited resources across supply chains as the US economy powers out of the pandemic.
How about smoke exposure? The Caldor Fire has perhaps caused some smoke exposure issues that are very limited in extent in terms of grape-growing area, so too the Dixie Fire. In many areas across the state, smoke is sometimes evident high up in the atmosphere, too distant to have much – if any – effect; wineries remain largely unconcerned to date.
The state’s forecast for the 2021 harvest of 3.6 million tons, issued August 12th, still looks accurate, but the potential is there for it to be smaller. Some areas still have the potential to come in close to normal (the Central Coast, parts of Sonoma County and Lodi, for example) but there are too many lighter crops out there being reported (Lake, Mendocino, and Napa Valley counties and importantly the southern Central Valley) for the total crop to come in close to the average of 4 million tons.
There has been an uptick in bulk activity in recent weeks but the level of buyer hesitation that – in general – still pervades the market is perhaps greater than would be felt in a so-called ‘normal’ light crop year, especially as it will be a second successive lighter crop. This hesitancy perhaps hints at an awareness that the increase in off-premise sales volumes versus the last comparable year, 2019, is shrinking as the months go by, while the on-premise is only starting to get back on its feet. More simply, there is an inability to make confident sales projections right now. The grape market, meanwhile, has been more active: the Central Valley is essentially sold out, while pockets of Coastal availability are gradually diminishing.
Read on for more on the bulk wine and grape markets and a deeper-dive into the latest. If you’re a grower, good luck with harvest, and – whether you’re a buyer or a seller – don’t hesitate to call if you need our assistance. Stay safe.